Higher Ed Marketing Insider

The Enrollment Squeeze - April 3, 2025 Higher Ed Marketing Blogs Roundup

• Will Scott

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Higher education is in flux.

On this episode, we dig into what’s working—and what’s not—as colleges and universities face shrinking enrollment, rising competition, and shifting expectations.

We break down the big trends shaping 2025:

  • AI in marketing
  • Demographic freefall
  • Budget stress
  • Branding battles
  • The push for retention

You’ll hear smart takes on how to market smarter, serve adult learners, personalize outreach, and keep students engaged. We also explore how community colleges are stepping up for workforce training—and why financial sustainability is non-negotiable.

Quick, clear, and full of insights you can use.

Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro: The Crossroads of Higher Ed
00:52 - What is the "Messy Middle"?
02:06 - Demographics: Fewer Students, Bigger Stakes
03:32 - Data-Driven Marketing Wins
06:18 - AI: Game-Changer or Just Buzz?
08:30 - Stand Out: Brand or Get Buried
10:03 - Retention: Keep Who You’ve Got
12:46 - Serving Adults & Workforce Shifts
15:20 - Dollars & Sense: Financial Survival
16:15 - Wrap-Up: Clarity in the Chaos

Learn more about the Higher Education Marketing Institute:

  • Website: https://highereducationmarketinginstitute.com/
  • X: https://x.com/HEMInstitute
  • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/higher-education-marketing-institute/
  • YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HigherEducationMarketing
Jack:

You know, staying ahead in higher education, marketing and enrollment, it really feels like trying to hit a moving target sometimes, doesn't it? Especially as we look towards 2025. Oh,

Jill:

absolutely. It's a dynamic space.

Jack:

So we've pulled together some really interesting discussions and analyses recently. Stuff that sheds light on what's changing and, uh, more importantly, what those changes actually mean for how you attract and enroll students.

Jill:

Yeah. Getting practical about it.

Jack:

Exactly. Think of this as. Well, maybe a shortcut to understanding the key shifts we're talking. AI impact, navigating those big demographic changes and finding, you know, genuinely innovative ways to connect with prospective students. Good plan. Our goal today is basically to pull out the most relevant insights, the stuff that can help you sharpen your institution's strategy in this. Well, pretty complex landscape.

Jill:

Yeah. And it's fascinating right now just the sheer amount of transition happening. Uh, some people in the field are actually calling it the messy middle.

Jack:

Messy middle, huh.

Jill:

Yeah. And I think that really captures the feeling. We're seeing pressures from, well, all sides, economic uncertainty, definite shifts in who's even considering college these days, rapid tech changes. Um, more intense competition for students, obviously. And, you know, a noticeable erosion of public trust in higher ed as a whole.

Jack:

Let's unpack that messy middle idea a little more. What are the sort of real world challenges creating this turbulence for institutions?

Jill:

Well, for many, I think the most immediate concern is declining enrollment. That's the big one, right? Fewer students. It naturally leads to financial strain, and at the same time, the fight for those students who are enrolling is just getting tougher. That means increased marketing spend more recruitment effort. Mm-hmm. And beyond that, institutions are facing potential cuts to grant funding and, uh, research dollars that can really impact their academic and research missions.

Jack:

Yeah, of course. Stuff.

Jill:

Exactly. And we're also observing, interestingly, a rollback of DEI initiatives, that's diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts, which, you know, can alter the campus environment and the student body makeup.

Jack:

And layering on top of all of that. We've got some pretty significant demographic shifts coming, right? That Cliff everyone talks about.

Jill:

Exactly. We're approaching a peak in the number of high school graduates, probably around 2025. Uh, this is often called the demographic cliff because after this point, projections show a gradual decline in this. Sort of traditional college going group over the next 15 years or so.

Jack:

15 years. Wow.

Jill:

Yeah. But it's really important to understand this isn't happening uniformly across the country. It varies a lot.

Jack:

Okay.

Jill:

States like Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, they're actually projected to see an increase in high school grads.

Jack:

Oh, interesting.

Jill:

Yeah. While states like New York, Illinois, they're looking at more significant decreases. And we've also seen a concerning trend just in the college going rate itself. Which actually declined between 2016 and 2022.

Jack:

So even among those graduating,

Jill:

yeah, it suggests that even among those graduating high school, a smaller percentage are choosing to go straight to higher ed.

Jack:

That definitely paints a picture of a well shrinking pool in many areas. And I know there's been a lot of talk about whether people even see the value of a college degree the same way anymore. Plus concerns about cost. Obviously

Jill:

those are absolutely critical factors right now. The perceived ROI, the return on investment of a degree is being questioned more than ever, and the rising cost of tuition is just a major barrier for so many families. Institutions really need to be aware of these perceptions and frankly, address them head on in their communication and enrollment strategies.

Jack:

So given all these headwinds, what kind of marketing and enrollment strategies are actually, you know, working for institutions trying to navigate this?

Jill:

What we're seeing is a real shift towards personalized, uh, data-driven approaches in higher ed marketing. The days of just casting a wide net and hoping for the best of pretty much over institutions are finding success by really leveraging data to understand prospective students and their families on a much deeper level, and then tailoring their outreach.

Jack:

That just makes sense, doesn't it? You can't really connect if you're sending generic stuff that doesn't resonate. How does this data-driven approach actually translate into like concrete tactics?

Jill:

Well, a key element here is something called conversion rate optimization, or C-R-O-C-R-O. Essentially. CRO is about making your online presence work harder to turn. Interested visitors into actual enrolled students. This involves really digging into how prospective students interact with your website, your digital platforms, right? Techniques like AB testing, different versions of web pages or emails to see what works best. Um. Personalizing the online experience based on a student's profile or maybe information they've already shown. Interesting. And just making sure you have clear, compelling calls to action at each stage. Yeah. All that is crucial for CRO, the goal is really to guide potential students and their families smoothly through that enrollment funnel.

Jack:

It sounds like really understanding their online behavior is just paramount.

Jill:

Absolutely. And that understanding needs to extend to recognizing that you're often talking to two distinct but connected audiences.

Jack:

Hmm.

Jill:

The students themselves and their parents or guardians. Oh,

Jack:

right. Two audiences.

Jill:

Yeah. Their habits for consuming info and their motivations in the college search can be quite different. For example, uh, research shows both students and parents use platforms like YouTube for research. And social media obviously, but the type of content they're looking for and the reasons they're engaging will vary quite a bit.

Jack:

So what are some of those key differences? What are students and parents prioritizing?

Jill:

Well, for students factors like, uh, specific details about academic programs, opportunities for hands-on learning, and importantly, potential career outcomes after graduation. Tend to be top of mind.

Jack:

Makes sense. They wanna see the future.

Jill:

Exactly. They wanna envision their future and see how your institution helps'em get there. Parents on the other hand, often place a higher emphasis on overall affordability, safety, and security at the campus and the school's academic reputation or prestige. Got it. So effective marketing needs to address both sets of priorities, often through different channels and with, you know, tailored messaging that speaks directly to their specific concerns.

Jack:

This naturally leads us towards technology, which is always changing.

Jill:

Yeah.

Jack:

How's tech impacting marketing and enrollment now, and where does AI fit in all this?

Jill:

Technology and Yeah, especially the advances in artificial intelligence, they have the potential to really reshape a lot of workflows within higher ed. Definitely including marketing and enrollment.

Jack:

Okay. Like how?

Jill:

Well, for example, Adobe recently previewed a tool called Project Slide. Wow. It's designed to automatically generate PowerPoint presentations from raw customer data. What's interesting for marketing is that it integrates directly with Adobe Customer Journey Analytics and it focuses on highlighting key data insights without necessarily relying on large language models. This could really streamline creating those data-backed reports and presentations for marketing teams. Yeah,

Jack:

sounds like it could free up time for more strategic thinking. Maybe

Jill:

that's the idea. Another significant development, uh, is that Anthropics AI model. Claude has now gained the ability to do realtime web searches.

Jack:

Oh, okay. Like Google or Bing

Jill:

sort of, yeah. It closes a key gap with competitors. It means Claude can now access and synthesize up to the minute information from the web. For higher ed, this could be a valuable tool for say, market research, staying on top of emerging trends relevant to students, and even helping inform strategic decisions at the institutional level.

Jack:

Beyond those specific tools, what are some broader ways AI might get integrated?

Jill:

Oh, the potential applications are pretty diverse. We're seeing exploration of AI in administrative tasks, improving efficiency there, uh, developing more personalized and adaptive teaching methods, streamlining assessment processes, and enhancing the overall student experience. I. Through things like AI powered chatbots for support,

Jack:

right, the chat bot.

Jill:

Yeah. Some institutions view this AI integration as a way to show innovation and maybe address some of those concerns about public confidence by showing they're using cutting edge tools to benefit students. We're already seeing examples like the University of South Florida. They implemented an AI powered IT service desk

Jack:

for faster support.

Jill:

Exactly. Faster, more efficient support for students and faculty. Of course, with all this, there's a need for careful thought about guardrails and ethical considerations around AI in marketing and education generally. That's a big ongoing conversation. Definitely.

Jack:

Okay. Let's shift focus a bit. How are institutions positioning themselves in what we've established is a really competitive market. Branding seems like it would be more crucial than ever.

Jill:

You're absolutely right. In a crowded marketplace where everyone's vying for a similar pool of students, a strong, cohesive, purposeful brand, built on solid research is absolutely essential.

Jack:

It's your identity.

Jill:

It is. Universities need to clearly and effectively communicate their unique value proposition. What makes them different? Why choose them over the competition? That's key for attracting the right students, faculty funding, and yeah, even regaining public trust.

Jack:

We've seen some interesting examples of universities doing major rebranding efforts recently, haven't we?

Jill:

Yes, definitely. Some notable examples really highlight that strategic importance. The University of Colorado, for instance, made a big move to rebrand itself, creating a more unified identity for its system.

Jack:

They dropped the city name sometimes.

Jill:

Yeah. Involved dropping Boulder and Denver in many contexts. It was a deliberate strategic decision aimed at positioning the whole CU system as a leading research institution on a broader scale.

Jack:

And it's not just about a name change or a logo, is it? It's the whole presentation

Jill:

precisely. Boise State University is another really insightful example. They invested heavily in research, internal and external, to really understand their strengths and the perceptions of their key audiences. And that research then directly informed their brand strategies, their core messaging, even their visual identity. It was a comprehensive approach, and it's been credited with helping them differentiate themselves effectively.

Jack:

Right? So once an institution successfully enrolls a student. The focus shifts,

Jill:

right?

Jack:

Keeping that student, ensuring their success. Retention seems like a massive piece of this puzzle, especially with those demographic challenges looming.

Jill:

That's exactly right. With frankly, significant numbers of students not completing their degrees, proactive, effective retention strategies aren't just a nice to have anymore. They're a necessity. Yeah. The data from 2022 on completion rates and dropout numbers really underscores the urgency. Losing students directly impacts tuition revenue. Sure. But it also affects the institution's reputation, and most importantly, the students own goals.

Jack:

What are some of the main reasons students end up leaving before they finish?

Jill:

Well, there are a number of interconnected factors. Academic struggles are definitely a major contributor. Financial barriers, huge issue. A lack of a strong sense of belonging or adequate institutional support can make students feel disconnected. Mm-hmm. Mental health challenges are increasingly recognized as a significant factor too, and just the various life responsibilities students juggle work, family can sometimes become overwhelming.

Jack:

So what are some concrete steps colleges can take to actually improve retention?

Jill:

A comprehensive, multifaceted approach is really key. Implementing early intervention systems is one. Using predictive analytics may be to identify students at risk and offering timely support. Programs like Quad C's, early alerts are an example.

Jack:

Proactive support.

Jill:

Exactly. Reducing financial barriers through scholarships, grants, financial literacy programs. That's crucial. Cultivating a strong sense of campus community through activities, mentoring, supportive faculty relationships help students feel connected. Strengthening academic support services, maybe even including AI tutoring tools down the line, and definitely expanding access to mental health and wellness resources are vital. And finally, leveraging data-driven strategies to identify those at-risk students and proactively intervene with tailored support is becoming really important.

Jack:

And it seems like investing in retention could also really help the bottom line, couldn't it? Especially given those demographic declines we talked about.

Jill:

Absolutely. Retaining a student who's already enrolled is often far more cost effective than constantly recruiting new students to fill empty spots. Yeah. Programs like CUNY's, ASAP program, that's the City University of New York, which provides financial aid plus intensive counseling, and the University of Southern Maine's focus on just solid basic advising. They've both shown significant success in improving retention.

Jack:

Good examples.

Jill:

Yeah. And furthermore, as student bodies become more diverse, prioritizing equity and inclusion isn't just the right thing to do. It's also a key factor in making sure all students feel supported and have the resources they need to succeed and stay enrolled.

Jack:

Looking beyond the sort of traditional undergrad, there's been more talk about adapting to serve new markets, adult learners, and aligning better with workforce needs.

Jill:

Yes, the idea of pivoting to better serve adult learners, it presents both big opportunities and some pretty considerable challenges for many institutions. Why challenges? Well, effectively engaging and retaining adult learners often requires significant operational, maybe even cultural shifts within a university that's traditionally focused on younger. First time students, and honestly right now there's still a lack of really comprehensive data on the most effective strategies for reaching and supporting this specific group.

Jack:

Hmm. Okay. And what about the role of higher ed, maybe community colleges specifically in preparing people for the modern workforce?

Jill:

Community colleges are playing an increasingly vital role there, especially in preparing the workforce for emerging sectors like the, uh, rapidly evolving energy economy.

Jack:

Right. Green jobs and all that. Yeah,

Jill:

exactly. The emphasis is shifting towards integrating skills-based training directly into existing degree and certificate programs rather than creating entirely new. Standalone degrees. Organizations like NREL, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, are actively working to engage with community and technical colleges to support this.

Jack:

So understanding specific industry needs is becoming more crucial for these colleges.

Jill:

Absolutely. There's a growing need for better data on exactly where and how workers are currently being trained for specific roles, particularly in high demand areas. Like energy production and efficiency. This data helps schools align their programs with local economic development plans. We're also seeing a push to adapt things like internships and faculty development programs to make them more accessible and valuable for community college students and instructors.

Jack:

South of Louisiana Community College, SLCC. That's been highlighted as a really interesting example of a community college adapting well.

Jill:

That's correct. SLCC has gotten recognition for its innovative approach. It includes a strong focus on hands-on skills-based training, developing really deep partnerships with local industries, and providing comprehensive student support services directly aligned with the economic needs of their community.

Jack:

They did a rebrand too.

Jill:

They did their recent rebranding efforts also emphasize those strong local ties and their role as a driver of social and economic mobility. And, uh, there's also increasing discussion about community colleges potentially using Perkins funds, those federal funds for career and tech, for digital marketing to attract more students to these vital workforce programs.

Jack:

Interesting use of those funds. Okay. Finally, let's just touch on the critical issue of financial sustainability for institutions navigating all these shifts.

Jill:

Yeah, financial pressures are a major concern for a significant number of colleges and universities. Developing proactive, innovative strategies for long-term financial stability is just essential.

Jack:

Any optimism there?

Jill:

Well, some leaders do express optimism about the potential of organizational transformation and the strategic integration of AI to help improve financial sustainability. But it's also widely acknowledged that exploring new revenue streams and fundamentally rethinking existing resource allocation models will be crucial for many

Jack:

and international students.

Jill:

Their role, despite current recruitment challenges continues to be important, both for campus diversity and for the financial health of many institutions. And we're also seeing that growing push among wealthier institutions to enroll more low income students supported by better financial aid and support programs.

Jack:

So as we wrap up, it really seems like we're looking at a bunch of interconnected themes shaping the future of higher ed marketing and enrollment.

Jill:

Yes, absolutely. The increasing importance of data-driven personalized marketing, the transformative potential of tech and ai, balanced with ethical considerations, the critical need for strong differentiated branding. Essential focus on student retention and success, especially with changing demographics and the imperative to adapt to new student markets and workforce demands for financial sustainability. All these things are tightly linked. They need to be considered together.

Jack:

It really underscores the need for institutions to be agile, doesn't it? To continuously learn, adapt, and stay closely connected to the evolving needs of students and families.

Jill:

Precisely. And it leaves us with a final question maybe for you to consider as you reflect on all these interconnected shifts we've discussed. Which one do you think presents the single biggest opportunity or maybe the most significant challenge for your institution in the coming year?

Jack:

Hmm. Good question.

Jill:

What might be some initial steps you could take to proactively address that opportunity or challenge? We definitely encourage you to explore the specific examples and strategies we touched on today as you keep navigating this dynamic landscape.